Better estimates of survival for patients considering adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery for early non-small-cell lung cancer

摘要

Introduction: The aim of this study was to summarise and describe survival data from contemporary randomised trials of platinum-based adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The goal was to assist clinicians to provide better estimates of survival for patients considering adjuvant chemotherapy following surgical resection for NSCLC. Methods: Randomised trials of cisplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy for resected NSCLC were identified. Survival rates at 1, 2, 5, 7 and 10 years and the following percentiles (scenario): 90th (worst case), 75th (lower typical), median, 25th (upper typical) and 10th (best case) were extracted from each overall survival (OS) curve. Results: Thirty-eight OS curves from 19 trials (7042 patients) were analysed. With adjuvant chemotherapy, the median OS rate (interquartile range) at 1 year was 91% (85-95), 2 years was 73% (69-88), 5 years was 61% (45-65) and 7 years was 49% (38-65). With observation only, the median OS rate (interquartile range) at 1 year was 88% (83-92), 2 years was 74% (65-82), 5 years was 55% (42-58) and 7 years was 40% (34-45). In both arms, survival rates at 2, 5 and 7 years were well estimated by raising the 1-year survival rate to the power of two, five and seven respectively. Few trials reported survival rates at 10 years. Conclusion: Simple percentages and their powers provide a useful starting point for estimating and describing survival to patients considering adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery for NSCLC.