Price modelling in the Canadian fish supply chain with forecasts and simulations of the producer price of fish

摘要

This research article reports the results of two time-series models defined on the producer price of fish in Canada. An ARMAX model is specified to provide a parsimonious characterization of producer prices and used to simulate price effects from exchange rate shocks. Results show the importance of exogenous shocks, outside the control of fisheries management on welfare/income of Canadian fishermen. An error-correction model is specified to link the price in the first-hand market to the price in the processing market. This model measures both the short- and long-run parameters in defining price, provides estimates on the length of time to regain the equilibrium from price shocks and to forecast producer price response. Interestingly, results show that process price can be considered weakly exogenous with respect to both the short and long run and is the price leader in determining producer price.