Assessing Markov property in multistate transition models with applications to credit risk modeling

机译：评估Markov属性在多态转换模型中，具有信用风险建模的应用

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Abstract >Multistate transition models are increasingly used in credit risk applications as they allow us to quantify the evolution of the process among different states. If the process is Markov, analysis and prediction are substantially simpler, so analysts would like to use these models if they are applicable. In this paper, we develop a procedure for assessing the Markov hypothesis and discuss different ways of implementing the test procedure. One issue when sample size is large is that the statistical test procedures will detect even small deviations from the Markov model when these differences are not of practical interest. To address this problem, we propose an approach to formulate and test the null hypothesis of “weak non‐Markov.” The situation where the transition probabilities are heterogeneous is also examined, and approaches to accommodate this case are indicated. Simulation studies are used extensively to study the properties of the procedures, and two applications are to illustrate the results. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >多态转换模型越来越多地用于信用风险应用，因为它们允许我们量化不同状态的过程的演变。如果该过程是Markov，则分析和预测基本上是更简单的，因此分析师希望如果适用，则使用这些模型。在本文中，我们制定了评估马尔可夫假设的程序，并讨论了实施测试程序的不同方式。样本大小很大的一个问题是，当这些差异不是实际兴趣时，统计测试程序将检测到来自马尔可夫模型的小偏差。为了解决这个问题，我们提出了一种方法来制定和测试“弱非马尔可夫”的空假设。还检查了过渡概率的情况，并且指示接近这种情况的方法。模拟研究广泛用于研究程序的性质，两种应用是说明结果。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-19344/'>《Applied stochastic models in business and industry》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2019年第3期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共19页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Yang Hanyu&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Yang Hanyu;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Nair Vijayan N.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Nair Vijayan N.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Chen Jie&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Chen Jie;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Sudjianto Agus&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Sudjianto Agus;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Corporate Model Risk Wells FargoCharlotte NC USA;</p> <p>Corporate Model Risk Wells FargoCharlotte NC USA;</p> <p>Corporate Model Risk Wells FargoCharlotte NC USA;</p> <p>Corporate Model Risk Wells FargoCharlotte NC USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1147.html" title="应用数学">应用数学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Chapman-Kolmogorov equation&option=203" rel="nofollow">Chapman-Kolmogorov equation;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Markov hypothesis test&option=203" rel="nofollow">Markov hypothesis test;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=non-Markov processes&option=203" rel="nofollow">non-Markov processes;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=risk management&option=203" rel="nofollow">risk management;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=weak hypothesis&option=203" rel="nofollow">weak hypothesis;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：Chapman-Kolmogorov方程式;马尔可夫假设试验;非马尔可夫进程;风险管理;弱假设; 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<b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN107841551B </span> <span> . 2021.04.13</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06120110347048.html">单核苷酸多态性位点在创伤脓毒症风险评估中的应用</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN107841551A </span> <span> . 2018-03-27</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130464213017.html">Speech recognition employing a set of Markov models that includes Markov models representing transitions to and from silence</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  US4977599A </span> <span> . 1990-12-11</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：语音识别采用一组马尔可夫模型，其中包括代表进入和离开静默状态的马尔可夫模型 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130467396081.html">SPEECH RECOGNITION EMPLOYING A SET OF MARKOV MODELS THAT INCLUDES MARKOV MODELS REPRESENTING TRANSITIONS TO AND FROM SILENCE</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  CA1259411A </span> <span> . 1989-09-12</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：使用一组马尔可夫模型进行语音识别，其中包括马尔可夫模型，这些模型表示向沉默和从沉默的转换 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130429397761.html">System of constructing credit risk model, method of managing credit risk using credit risk model construction and Recording medium thereof</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  KR100914307B1 </span> <span> . 2009-08-27</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：信用风险模型构建系统，信用风险模型构建管理信用风险的方法及其记录介质 </span> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="theme cardcommon" style="overflow: auto;display:none"> <h3 class="all_title" 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