Ecuador Ecuador's Oil & Gas Production Faces Challenges

摘要

We maintain a rather bleak outlook for oil production in Ecuador with a small uptick in output over the short term and a subsequent decline. The production growth is likely to be delivered by Petroamazonas as private producers face falling output. We see an upside risk to our long-term forecast stemming from the potential new entrants on the market. However, the elevated risk of unrest is likely to weaken investment sentiment. Natural gas production will fall short in meeting growing demand from power and industry sectors, forcing the government to boost imports. A potential increase in production from the largest ofshore gas feld constitutes an upside risk to our forecast over medium to long term.