Development and validation of an imaging and clinical scoring system to predict early mortality in spontaneous ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma treated with transarterial embolization

摘要

Purpose To develop and validate a scoring system using a combination of imaging and clinical parameters to predict 30-day mortality in ruptured HCC (rHCC) patients after transarterial embolization (TAE). Methods 98 consecutive patients with rHCC who underwent abdominal CT and subsequent TAE between January 2007 and December 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. The CT scans were reviewed by two radiologists blinded to the patient outcome. Clinical parameters including serum bilirubin, albumin, INR, creatinine, and hemoglobin were recorded. Independent risk factors for 30-day mortality after TAE were identified using multivariate binary logistic regression, for development of a scoring system. The scoring system was then validated in 20 patients between January 2017 and May 2018. Results In the development cohort, bilobar tumor distribution (OR = 29.6), clinical parameters of bilirubin > 2.5 mg/dL (OR = 5.9), and albumin < 30 g/L (OR = 4.1) were independent predictors for 30-day mortality. A 6-point score was derived and yielded area-under-the-receiver-operating-characteristic-curve (AUC) of 0.904. A score≥4 resulted in sensitivity of 80.5% and specificity of 91.2% for 30-day mortality. In the validation cohort, AUC for 30-day mortality was 0.939. A score ≥ 4 resulted in sensitivity of 81.2% and specificity of 88.9%. In both development and validation cohorts, the proposed scoring system was better than biochemical components of Child-Pugh score and serum bilirubin to predict 30-day mortality. Conclusion Imaging and clinical parameters can be combined into a scoring system to accurately predict 30-day mortality after TAE in rHCC patients. The score may help identify and counsel high-risk patients.