Children’s quantitative Bayesian inferences from natural frequencies and number of chances

摘要

Highlights ? Children’s capacity to draw quantitative Bayesian inferences appears to be limited. ? Children perform equally well with natural frequencies and number of chances. ? Children’s Bayesian inferences can be improved by fostering extensional reasoning. Abstract Zhu and Gigerenzer (2006) showed that an appreciable number of Chinese children aged between 9 and 12years old made correct quantitative Bayesian inferences requiring the integration of priors and likelihoods as long as they were presented with numerical information phrased in terms of natural frequencies. In this study, we sought to replicate this finding and extend the investigation of chi