The impact of alternative land and yield assumptions in herbaceous biomass supply modeling: one-size-fits-all resource assessment?

摘要

The Billion-ton Reports series has addressed the technical economic potential of supplying additional biomass from farmland and forests. Underlying each of the reports and supporting scenarios is a series of assumptions that drive the modeled output. The assumptions have developed over time with the support of technical experts from industry, academia, and government. Energy crops have not yet reached commodity scale, and only exist in commercial production in a limited number of regions, so many of the key assumptions of biomass potential are not supported by commercial demonstrations across multiple regions. This report examines the biomass potential of herbaceous energy crops from US farmland when alternative assumptions concerning production are modeled. In particular, the assumption of energy grasses, both perennial and annual, is modified with respect to land eligibility, annual rotations, and yield growth. The results of these changes are presented in six scenarios - three of which are modifications to the base-case scenario and three to the high-yield scenario. The impact on land enrolled and biomass supply are discussed with respect to the most recent 2016 Billion-ton Report results. (c) 2018 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd