When is enough...enough? Effective sampling protocols for estimating the survival rates of seabirds with mark-recapture techniques

摘要

Capsule: Lower intensity mark-recapture studies, such as those undertaken by citizen scientists, provide an opportunity to improve the spatial representation of survival estimates for birds. Colonial nesting birds are particularly suited to this because, for many species, large numbers of breeding birds and chicks can be located relatively easily. The minimum level of recapture effort required to accurately estimate true survival rates and detect temporal variation largely depended on the respective ringing effort. Therefore, mark-recapture studies should consider both aspects of the field study when setting or adjusting minimum effort guidelines. Furthermore, achieving reliable estimation with short time-series required more intensive survey designs, highlighting the importance of longevity when planning these studies.Aims: To provide minimum guidelines of field effort that can be used to manage smaller projects that monitor survival rates, such as those reliant on citizen scientists.Methods: We conducted a sensitivity analysis that evaluated the statistical power associated with using different mark-recapture survey designs to estimate a fixed true' survival rate and detect sources of temporal variation and individual heterogeneity within the population.Results: Isolating temporal variation with a good degree (90%) of certainty required the highest levels of survey effort. Based on the assessed survey designs, we recommend studies that have a ten-year trajectory and a recapture rate of 0.6, aim to mark at least 200 new adults per year. The recommended number of marked individuals will decrease if it is possible to achieve higher rates of recapture. Lower rates of juvenile survival and delayed reproduction mean that seabird mark-recapture survey designs that target both chicks and adults offer only marginal improvements in resolving the survival rates of adults, when compared to designs targeting adults only. However, collecting juvenile mark-recapture data provide access to age-specific vital rates that are also valuable for assessing the population dynamics of seabirds.Conclusion: The addition of chicks is unlikely to improve the resolution of adult survival rates markedly, although for species with low natal dispersal and earlier ages of maturity, these data may allow the estimation of other vital rates, such as juvenile survival rates and age of maturity. Implementing minimum effort guidelines potentially enables the effective management of smaller mark-recapture studies, thus minimising the risk that studies fail to achieve the data conditions necessary for robust estimation of survival rates.