Threshold dynamics of the Transmission of Antibiotic-Resistant Infections

摘要

Despite numerous studies conducted, multidrug-resistant infections such as methicillin-resistantStaphylococcus aureus(MRSE) and vancomycin-resistantenterococci(VRE) are still increasing in hospitals, and yet continued to be the important challenges of worldwide health. Mathematical modeling gives an insightful information in policy and decision making to control the transmission and spread of these infections globally. We formulated and analyse a mathematical model to characterise the transmission co-dynamics of hospital-acquired MRSE (HA-MRSA) and community-acquired MRSE (CA-MRSA) and to investigate the long run competitiveness of the two strains in hospital. Numerical simulations are carried out to explore the basic reproduction numbers for the two strains so as to determine the dominant strain in the future in hospital setting. Under some conditions, invasion reproduction numbers are also applied to determine the uniform persistence of the two strains. We further performed sensitivity analysis to examine the influence of model parameters on the transmission and spread of the the strains, thereby determine the effective intervention strategies that reduce the overflow of the infections in hospital setting. To support theoretical findings qualitatively, graphical representations are provided.