Study of rainfall variabilities in Southeast Asia using long-term gridded rainfall and its substantiation through global climate indices

摘要

This study utilized a long-term (1951-2014) moderate-resolution observed gridded (0.5 degrees x0.5 degrees) rainfall dataset to analyze long-term and short-term rainfall variability and the seasonality in Southeast Asia (SEA). The previous studies for this region revealed significant enhancement in extreme events and seasonal variabilities in rainfall. In this study, the frequency and intensity-based rainfall extremity analysis was carried out by utilizing a number of rainfall extreme indices (e.g. Dry Days, Wet Days, 90P, 95P, and 99P). A seasonal non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to detect significant increase and decrease of rainfall. The possible causes for the acceleration and variabilities of rainfall were investigated by analyzing the impact of large-scale ocean-atmospheric climate interactions through global climate indices such as El Nino (3.4 and 4.0), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), global mean land and ocean temperature index, QBO and NOI. Our results displayed a significant increase of rainfall amount in most of SEA regions, while a minimal decrease was also found over some regions. The rainfall indices displayed substantial intra-decadal variabilities over the SEA region. The intra-decadal percent of change analysis based on rainfall extreme indices revealed significant changes in rainfall extremes over SEA, which also evidenced the computed acceleration in rainfall over the region. The correlation analysis based findings exhibited that a strong correlation existed between the SEA rainfall and the large-scale global climate indices generated based on the ocean-atmosphere climate interactions. After regionalization of the SEA, the global climate indices based results described the spatiotemporal variabilities in rainfall, which were computed over SEA regions. The global climate indices such as El Nino (3.4 & 4.0), SOI, NOI and MJO suggested significant correlations with the seasonal rainfall and the rainfall extreme indices and highlighted that their collinearities vary within regions as per variations in the monsoon.