Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming

Dong Lu; Leung L. Ruby; Song Fengfei

摘要

Abstract >Changes in subseasonal precipitation variability have important implications for predictability of weather and climate extreme. Here we explore the mechanisms that lead to future changes in subseasonal precipitation variability in North America during winter based on 20 state‐of‐the‐art climate models. Modeling evidences indicate that in a warmer climate, the subseasonal precipitation variability consistently increases over most of North America, with intensified swing between the wet and dry extremes, but declines over Mexico. Using a moisture budget decomposition framework, two opposing mechanisms are established: the thermodynamic component from increasing moisture due to global warming intensifies the subseasonal precipitation variability, while the dynamic component from the projected reduction in subseasonal rainfall‐related circulation variability has an opposite effect. Overall, the thermodynamic effect wins the tug of war at the mid‐to‐high latitudes over most of North America, while the dynamic effect overwhelms the thermodynamic effect in Mexico, creating distinct changes in subseasonal precipitation variability. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >改变性地降水变化对于天气和气候极端的可预测性具有重要意义。在这里，我们探讨了冬季北美在冬季冬季综合降水变异变化的机制，基于20型最先进的气候模型。建模证据表明，在温暖的气候中，北美大部分地区持续增加，潮湿和干燥之间的大部分挥杆均持续增加，但在墨西哥的下降，始终会增加。使用水分预算分解框架，建立了两个相反的机制：由于全球变暖引起的水分增加的热力学成分强化了沉积的降水变异性，而来自陷入血栓性降雨相关的循环变异性的预计降低的动态分量具有相反的效果。总体而言，热力学效果在北美大部分大部分地区的中高纬度地区赢得了拔河，而动态效果压倒了墨西哥的热力学效果，从而产生了不同的沉淀变异性的不同变化。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第22期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共10页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Dong Lu&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Dong Lu;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Leung L. Ruby&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Leung L. Ruby;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Song Fengfei&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Song Fengfei;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change DivisionPacific Northwest National LaboratoryRichland Washington USA;</p> <p>Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change DivisionPacific Northwest National LaboratoryRichland Washington USA;</p> <p>Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change DivisionPacific Northwest National LaboratoryRichland Washington USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704019851504.html">Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Dong Lu&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Dong Lu,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Leung L. 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