Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming

摘要

Recent global climate model simulations for the IPCC Fourth Assessment report show a realistic North Pacific storm track and Aleutian Low for present-day climate conditions. Under climate change, the storm track and Aleutian Low move northward and intensify. These changes shift precipitation northward along the Pacific coast of North America. In particular, precipitation is intensified over the Pacific Northwest. Results from a statistical downscaling model suggest that precipitation may become more intense both due to the increased frequency of large-scale storms and due to changes in the interaction of these storms with the local terrain.