Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales

Zampieri Lorenzo; Goessling Helge F.; Jung Thomas

摘要

Abstract >With retreating sea ice and increasing human activities in the Arctic come a growing need for reliable sea ice forecasts up to months ahead. We exploit the subseasonal‐to‐seasonal prediction database and provide the first thorough assessment of the skill of operational forecast systems in predicting the location of the Arctic sea ice edge on these time scales. We find large differences in skill between the systems, with some showing a lack of predictive skill even at short weather time scales and the best producing skillful forecasts more than 1.5?months ahead. This highlights that the area of subseasonal prediction in the Arctic is in an early stage but also that the prospects are bright, especially for late summer forecasts. To fully exploit this potential, it is argued that it will be imperative to reduce systematic model errors and develop advanced data assimilation capacity. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><抽象类型= “主要” 的xml：LANG = “en” 的XML：ID = “grl58035-ABS-0001”> <标题类型= “主”>抽象</ TITLE> >通过撤退海冰和增加人类活动在北极来越来越需要可靠的海冰提前预测到月。我们利用这个subseasonal到季节预测数据库，并提供业务预报系统的技术的第一个全面的评估预测这些时间尺度上的北冰洋海冰边缘的位置。我们发现在技术系统之间的差异较大，有些甚至显示，在很短的天气时间尺度和最好的生产技术过硬的预测超过1.5？未来几个月缺乏预测技巧的。这着重指出，subseasonal预测的北极地区处于早期阶段，但也认为前景是光明的，尤其是夏末预测。为了充分利用这一潜力，有人认为，这将是势在必行，以降低系统模型误差和开发先进的数据同化能力。</ p> </抽象> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第18期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共8页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Zampieri Lorenzo&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Zampieri Lorenzo;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Goessling Helge F.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Goessling Helge F.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Jung Thomas&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Jung Thomas;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Alfred‐Wegener‐Institut Helmholtz‐Zentrum fur Polar‐ und MeeresforschungBremerhaven Germany;</p> <p>Alfred‐Wegener‐Institut Helmholtz‐Zentrum fur Polar‐ und MeeresforschungBremerhaven Germany;</p> <p>Alfred‐Wegener‐Institut Helmholtz‐Zentrum fur Polar‐ und MeeresforschungBremerhaven Germany;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Arctic sea ice&option=203" rel="nofollow">Arctic sea ice;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=subseasonal prediction&option=203" rel="nofollow">subseasonal prediction;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=seamless prediction&option=203" rel="nofollow">seamless prediction;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=sea ice verification&option=203" rel="nofollow">sea ice verification;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：北极海冰;沉积预测;无缝预测;海冰验证; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a 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