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Attributable Human‐Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey

机译：占飓风哈维期间观察到的极端降水的可能性和大小的可能性和幅度的变化

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Abstract > Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate‐based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation. We find that human‐induced climate change <fi>likely</fi> increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%), which is larger than the 6–7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius‐Clapeyron scaling. In a Granger causality sense, these statements provide lower bounds on the impact of climate change and motivate further attribution studies using dynamical climate models. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“main”XML：lang =“en”XML：ID =“GRL56744-ABS-ABS-ABS-0001”> <标题类型=“main”>摘要</ title> >记录rentricane harvey记录降雨量在德克萨斯州休斯顿，领导广泛洪水。我们通过基于协变的极值统计分析分析了从全球历史气候学网络的沉淀，占全球变暖的外部影响以及EL NI的内部影响，占EL NI的内部影响。我们发现人类诱发的气候变化</ fi>增加了在休斯顿最受影响的地区哈维期间观察到的降水累积的可能性至少为3.5。此外，这些区域中的降水累积可能增加了至少18.8％（最佳估计为37.7％），比墨西哥湾和克劳斯 - 克拉克拉顿群岛的归因于1°C的归因变暖的6-7％缩放。在格兰杰因果感觉中，这些陈述为气候变化的影响提供了下限，并使用动态气候模型激励进一步的归因研究。 </ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2017年第24期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共8页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Risser Mark D.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Risser Mark D.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wehner Michael F.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Wehner Michael F.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Climate and Ecosystem Sciences DivisionLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeley CA USA;</p> <p>Computational Research DivisionLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeley CA USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=attribution&option=203" rel="nofollow">attribution;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=extreme value analysis&option=203" rel="nofollow">extreme value analysis;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=global historical climatology network&option=203" rel="nofollow">global historical climatology network;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Hurricane Harvey&option=203" rel="nofollow">Hurricane Harvey;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate change&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate change;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：归因;极值分析;全球历史气候学网络;飓风哈维;气候变化; 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