The IMF has yet again marked down its projections for global economic growth this year and next because of the US-China trade war. Global GDP will grow by 3pc this year, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook proj- ects, a 0.2 percentage point fall from its forecast in July, and lagging last year’s 3.6pc (see graph). It lowered the forecast for 2020 by 0.1 of a percentage point to 3.4pc. IMF forecasts are widely used in the modelling behind key oil demand projections, including the IEA’s. The latest downward revision to the IMF’s key forecast is the ffth in a row, each tied to the gradual escalation in tarifs afect- ing trade between the world’s two largest economies, the US and China.
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