The burden of tuberculosis disease in children

摘要

In The Lancet, Helen Jenkins and colleagues1 reported a new global estimate of nearly 1 million incident cases (999 792; 95% Cl 937 877-1055 414) of tuberculosis in children in 2010, which was almost double the latest WHO estimate of 530000 cases in 2012 (95% Cl 510 000-550 000). The new estimate is flawed because it is greatly affected by the estimated proportion of tubercuJosis cases that have smear-positive pulmonary disease in children (aged 0-14 years) and in six other age groups, with parameter values assumed to be the average of those in notification data for Norway in 1951-72 and the USA 1985-87.