The Effects of Forecasting on Creative Problem-Solving: An Experimental Study

摘要

Prior research suggests that forecasting may play a critical role in both the evaluation of new ideas and planning for idea implementation. In the present study, 141 undergraduates were asked to formulate advertising campaigns for a new product. These campaign proposals were evaluated for quality, originality, and elegance. Prior to formulating these campaigns, participants were asked to forecast the implication of their ideas and forecast the effects of a plan for implementing their best idea. It was found that the extensiveness of forecasting the implication of ideas and the extensiveness of forecasting the implications of plans were related to the quality, originality, and elegance of the advertising campaigns proposed. The effectiveness of these forecasts was influenced by analysis of causes and goals and the use of case models. The implications of these findings for understanding the role of forecasting in creative thought are discussed.