A simple bias correction technique for modeled monsoon precipitation applied to West Africa

摘要

Seasonal forecast systems suffer from biases in location and intensity of precipitation for the West African monsoon which require correction especially if used for impacts modeling. A simple global bias correction technique based on empirical orthogonal function analysis has been applied specifically to the West African monsoon region. It is demonstrated to improve the operational forecasts made by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts seasonal forecasts which suffer from a systematic southerly shift in precipitation in this region.