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Market linkages, variance spillovers, and correlation stability: Empirical evidence of financial contagion

机译:市场联系,方差溢出和关联稳定性:金融传染的经验证据

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摘要

To model the contemporaneous relationships among Asian and American stock markets, a simultaneous equation system with GARCH errors is introduced. In the estimated residuals, the correlation matrix is analyzed over rolling windows and using a correlation matrix distance, which allows a graphical analysis and the development of a statistical test of correlation movements. Furthermore, a methodology that can be used to identify turmoil periods on a data-driven basis is presented. The previous results are applied in the analysis of the contagion issue between Asian and American stock markets. The results show some evidence of contagion, and the proposed statistics identify, on a data-driven basis, turmoil periods consistent with the ones currently assumed in the literature.
机译:为了模拟亚洲和美国股票市场之间的同期关系,引入了具有GARCH误差的联立方程组。在估计的残差中,在滚动窗口上并使用相关矩阵距离分析相关矩阵,从而可以进行图形分析并开发相关运动的统计检验。此外,提出了一种可用于在数据驱动的基础上识别动荡时期的方法。先前的结果用于分析亚洲和美国股票市场之间的传染性问题。结果显示了一些蔓延的证据,并且在数据驱动的基础上,提议的统计数据确定了与文献中当前假定的一致的动荡时期。

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