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Historical and potential future contributions of power technologies to global warming

机译:电力技术对全球变暖的历史和未来的潜在贡献

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Using the mathematical formalism of the Brazilian Proposal to the IPCC, we analyse eight power technologies with regard to their past and potential future contributions to global warming. Taking into account detailed bottom-up technology characteristics we define the mitigation potential of each technology in terms of avoided temperature increase by comparing a "coal-only" reference scenario and an alternative low-carbon scenario. Future mitigation potentials are mainly determined by the magnitude of installed capacity and the temporal deployment profile. A general conclusion is that early technology deployment matters, at least within a period of 50-100 years. Our results conclusively show that avoided temperature increase is a better proxy for comparing technologies with regard to their impact on climate change, and that numerous short-term comparisons based on annual or even cumulative emissions may be misleading. Thus, our results support and extend the policy relevance of the Brazilian Proposal in the sense that not only comparisons between countries, but also comparisons between technologies could be undertaken on the basis of avoided temperature increase rather than on the basis of annual emissions as is practiced today.
机译:使用巴西对IPCC提案的数学形式主义,我们分析了八种电力技术的过去以及对全球变暖的潜在未来贡献。考虑到自下而上的详细技术特征,我们通过比较“仅煤”参考情景和替代性低碳情景,根据避免的温度升高定义了每种技术的缓解潜力。未来的缓解潜力主要取决于装机容量的大小和临时部署情况。总的结论是,至少在50至100年内,早期的技术部署至关重要。我们的结果最终表明,避免温度升高是比较技术对气候变化影响的更好替代方法,并且基于年度甚至累积排放量的大量短期比较可能会产生误导。因此,我们的结果在某种意义上支持并扩展了巴西提案的政策相关性,不仅国家之间的比较,而且技术之间的比较都可以在避免温度升高的基础上而不是在实践中的年度排放量的基础上进行今天。

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