Monsoonal Influence on Typhoon Morakot (2009). Part II: Numerical Study

摘要

In the second part of this study, numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the influences of multi-time-scale monsoonal flows on the track change of Typhoon Morakot (2009). While the control simulation captures the slowing and northward deflections in the vicinity of Taiwan Island, the highly asymmetric rainfall structure, and the associated rainfall pattern, sensitivity experiments suggest that the westward movement prior to the landfall on Taiwan and the subsequent northward shifts in the vicinity of Taiwan were closely associated with the interaction between Morakot and multi-time-scale monsoonal flows. Prior to the landfall on Taiwan, Morakot moved westward directly toward Taiwan because of a synoptic wave train like pattern, which consisted of Goni over mainland China, Morakot, and a cyclone over the western North Pacific with an anticyclone to the west of Morakot. Numerical simulation suggests that strong northerly winds between Morakot and the anticyclone reduced the northward steering component associated with the low-frequency flow prior to the landfall. Numerical experiments confirm that the northward track shifts that occurred in the vicinity of Taiwan Island were a result of the coalescences of Morakot with a quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBW)-scale gyre prior to the landfall on Taiwan and a Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)-scale gyre in the Taiwan Strait. The simulation of Morakot and the associated sensitivity experiments agree with the previous barotropic study that the interaction between tropical cyclones and low-frequency monsoon gyres can cause sudden changes in tropical cyclone tracks.