Leaps of Faith: How Implicit Assumptions Compromise the Utility of Ecosystem Models for Decision-making

摘要

Ecological forecasts are increasingly seen as central to integrated management. However, to use such predictions, decision-makers require some understanding of how likely the forecasts are-or at least how likely one is over another. This cannot be achieved without considering model assumptions and their associated uncertainties. To illustrate, we first reviewed the theoretical aspects of model design and uncertainty, focusing on the role of assumptions. We then examined how the most popular articles on social-ecological models of marine systems reflect these modeling fundamentals. Of the articles reviewed, over half left design assumptions entirely implicit, and 60% effectively ignored uncertainty. This is a fundamental barrier to the use of such models for decision-making and to the broader goal of linking social and ecological models. These consequences and the suggestions offered to mitigate current faith-based interpretations of ecological forecasts are salient to anyone creating or using such predictions to support integrated management decisions.