How cognitive modeling can benefit from hierarchical Bayesian models

摘要

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling provides a flexible and interpretable way of extending simple models of cognitive processes. To introduce this special issue, we discuss four of the most important potential hierarchical Bayesian contributions. The first involves the development of more complete theories, including accounting for variation coming from sources like individual differences in cognition. The second involves the capability to account for observed behavior in terms of the combination of multiple different cognitive processes. The third involves using a few key psychological variables to explain behavior on a wide range of cognitive tasks. The fourth involves the conceptual unification and integration of disparate cognitive models. For all of these potential contributions, we outline an appropriate general hierarchical Bayesian modeling structure. We also highlight current models that already use the hierarchical Bayesian approach, as well as identifying research areas that could benefit from its adoption.