Development of Forest Fire Occurrence Probability ModelUsing Logistic Regression

摘要

To achieve the forest fire management goals such as early detection and quick suppression, fire resources should be allocated at high probability area where forest fires occur. The objective of this study was to develop and validate models to estimatespatially distributed probabilities of occurrence of forest fire. The models were builded by exploring relationships between fire ignition location and forest, terrain and anthropogenic factors using logistic regression. Distance to forest, cemetery, fire history, forest type, elevation, slope were chosen as the significant factors to the model. The model constructed had a good fit and classification accuracy of the model was 63%. This model and map can support the allocation optimization of forest fire resources and increase effectiveness in fire prevention and planning.