Quantifying the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin, China

摘要

The middle reaches of the Yellow River basin (MRYRB) contribute significantly to the total streamflow and sediment discharge of the Yellow River. Significant changes in streamflow have been detected; these changes result in part from large number of soil and water conservation measures implemented over the past six decades in this area. This study investigates streamflow variations and evaluates the impacts of climate variability and human activity on the mean annual flow in the MRYRB. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt's test are applied to characterize the trends and abrupt changes of hydro-climatic variables in the MRYRB. The analysis was performed on streamflow data taken over the period from the 1950s to 2010 at 18 hydrological stations and on precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data from 43 climate stations. We find that 16 of these stations recorded significant decreases in annual streamflow, with reduction rates ranging from 0.10 mm/yr to 1.61 mm/yr over the study period. Precipitation at all of the stations also had negative trends, with changes ranging from -4.7 mm/yr to -0.19 mm/yr. Temperature increased significantly at most stations, while PET showed a mixed of upward and downward trend. Abrupt changes in streamflow at mainstream stations occurred when large reservoirs were built, while breakpoints of streamflow at tributary stations were mainly driven by the implementation of soil and water conservation measures. We used both Budyko's curve (a simple water balance model) and linear regression to evaluate the potential impacts of climate variability and human activities on mean annual streamflow. Climate variability has a greater effect on the streamflow reduction in the Beiluo River and Yan River, while human activities accounted for more of the streamflow changes in other tributaries, especially in the northern catchments. In general, human activities, including soil and water conservation projects, the operation of dams and reservoirs, and water consumption, are found to be the dominant factors responsible for the significant decline in the annual streamflow in the MRYRB over the last six decades. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.