Modeling of groundwater level fluctuations using dendrochronology in alluvial aquifers

摘要

Groundwater is the most important water resource in semi-arid and arid regions such as Iran. It is necessary to study groundwater level fluctuations to manage disasters (such as droughts) and water resources. Dendrochronology, which uses tree-rings to reconstruct past events such as hydrologic and climatologic events, can be used to evaluate groundwater level fluctuations. In this study, groundwater level fluctuations are simulated using dendrochronology (tree-rings) and an artificial neural network (ANN) for the period from 1912 to 2013. The present study was undertaken using the Quercus Castaneifolia species, which is present in an alluvial aquifer of the Caspian southern coasts, Iran. A multilayer percepetron (MLP) network was adopted for the ANN. Tree-ring diameter and precipitation were the input parameters for the study, and groundwater levels were the outputs. After the training process, the model was validated. The validated network and tree-rings were used to simulate groundwater level fluctuations during the past century. The results showed that an integration of dendrochronology and an ANN renders a high degree of accuracy and efficiency in the simulation of groundwater levels. The simulated groundwater levels by dendrochronology can be used for drought evaluation, drought period prediction and water resources management. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.