Do US Macroeconomic Forecasters Exaggerate their Differences?

摘要

Application of the Bernhardt et al. (Journal of Financial Economics 2006; 80(3): 657-675) test of herding to the calendar-year annual output growth and inflation forecasts suggests forecasters tend to exaggerate their differences, except at the shortest horizon, when they tend to herd. We consider whether these types of behaviour can help to explain the puzzle that professional forecasters sometimes make point predictions and histogram forecasts which are mutually inconsistent. Copyright (C) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.