Bayesian Rationality in Evaluating Multiple Testimonies: Incorporating the Role of Coherence

摘要

Routinely in day-to-day life, as well as in formal settings such as the courtroom, people must aggregate information they receive from different sources. One intuitively important but underresearched factor in this context is the degree to which the reports from different sources fit together, that is, their coherence. The authors examine a version of Bayes' theorem that not only includes factors such as prior beliefs and witness reliability, as do other models of information aggregation, but also makes transparent the effect of the coherence of multiple testimonies on the believability of the information. The results suggest that participants are sensitive to all the normatively relevant factors when assessing the believability of a set of witness testimonies.