A multilinear regression (MLR) approach is developed to predict 3-hourly storm surge during the cool-season months (1 October-31 March 31) between 1979 and 2012 using two different atmospheric reanalysis datasets and water-level observations at three stations along the New York-New Jersey coast (Atlantic City, New Jersey; the Battery in New York City; and Montauk Point, New York). The predictors of the MLR are specified to represent prolonged surface wind stress and a surface sea level pressure minimum for a boxed region near each station. The regression underpredicts relatively large (>= 95th percentile) storm maximum surge heights by 6.0%-38.0%. A bias-correction technique reduces the average mean absolute error by 10%-15% at the various stations for storm maximum surge predictions. Using the same forecast surface winds and pressures from the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model between October and March 2010-14, raw and bias-corrected surge predictions at the Battery are compared with raw output from a numerical hydrodynamic model's [the Stevens Institute of Technology New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (SIT-NYHOPS)] predictions. The accuracy of surge predictions between the SIT-NYHOPS output and bias-corrected MLR model at the Battery are similar for predictions that meet or exceed the 95th percentile of storm maximum surge heights.
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机译：开发了一种多线性回归（MLR）方法，使用两个不同的大气再分析数据集和沿该地区三个站点的水位观测值，来预测1979年至2012年之间的凉爽月份（10月1日至3月31日）的3小时风暴潮。纽约-新泽西海岸（新泽西州大西洋城;纽约市炮台;纽约州蒙托克角）。 MLR的预测变量被指定为代表每个站点附近的黑框区域的延长的表面风应力和最小的海平面压力。回归预测相对较大（> = 95％）的风暴最大浪涌高度降低了6.0％-38.0％。偏差校正技术可将各个站点的平均平均绝对误差降低10％-15％，以预测风暴的最大浪涌。在2010-14年10月至2010年3月期间，使用来自北美中尺度（NAM）模型的相同的预测地面风和压力，将Battery的原始和经偏差校正的喘振预测与数值流体动力学模型[Stevens Institute of技术纽约港观测和预报系统（SIT-NYHOPS）的预测。对于达到或超过风暴最大浪涌高度的95％的预测，SIT-NYHOPS输出与电池处的经过偏置校正的MLR模型之间的浪涌预测的准确性相似。
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