基于有限元法的福建沿岸天文潮-风暴潮耦合预报模式研究

摘要

A 2 dimension tide-storm surge coupled numerical model based on finite element method (FETSCM)was established for Fujian coast.The mesh resolution along Fujian coast was 1 km by average with the finest mesh reso-lution of 500 m.The model was used to simulate the tide and storm surge.Comparing to the records at 6 tidal gau-ges along Fujian coast,the mean absolute error of tide simulation is 22 cm;the root mean square error of storm surge is 24 cm;the absolute error of max water level of tide and storm surge coupled water level was 20 cm.The results indicated that this tide-storm surge coupled model is useful for the storm disaster warning of Fujian coast.%采用有限元法建立了一个适用于福建沿岸的天文潮-风暴潮耦合预报模式（FETSCM），模式采用三角网格，在福建沿岸平均网格分辨率为1 km，最高500 m．利用福建沿岸6个潮位站的实测资料对模型进行了验证，天文潮模拟结果与实测吻合良好，5个站位平均绝对误差为22 cm；31场历史台风期间6个站位风暴潮后报模拟误差为24 cm；天文潮-风暴潮耦合总水位的平均极值误差为20 cm，表明该耦合预报模式对福建沿岸的台风灾害预警有较好实用价值．