Surging Air Traffic Lifts Global Jet Fuel Demand

摘要

Surging air traffic is driving gains in global jet fuel demand and shifting the engine for future growth to non-OECD countries, where economic advances are bringing air travel to a wider segment of the population. Consumption climbed by some 5% last year to 6.4 million barrels per day, based on figures compiled by JFI sister publication Oil Market Intelligence. JFI projections for 2016 show the gain tapering slightly to 4% as US growth slows down. Global passenger traffic jumped by 6.5% last year to post the strongest showing since 2010, according to data from the International Air Transport Association (JFI Feb.15’16). The US towers over the rest of the world as the largest single market totaling 1.5 million b/d, and has four of the world’s top 10 airports in terms of passenger traffic: Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles and Dallas-Forth Worth. But jet sales so far this year are running just 3% ahead of strong rates in 2015, which saw a 5% increase in fuel usage. US airlines are moderating their capacity gains to shore up flagging yields. Jet demand in OECD Europe posted a solid 4% rise in 2015 that was paced by Turkey’s huge 22% gain. Consumption in Europe’s largest UK market is constrained by a lack of spare airport capacity in London, while industrial action disrupted flights in Germany (JFI Feb.1’16). Total OECD jet demand climbed by 4% to 3.5 million b/d last year.