Golden Month for Refining Stretches to a Quarter

摘要

World crude oil is in surplus, but that cannot be said of refined products. Refinery margins remained stellar into March, despite analysts last month saying that a “golden month” for refining would soon be over. However, high crude stocks and low product stocks, in part due to solid winter demand, have tipped market leverage toward the product side. Anticipating coming maintenance, margins are their highest since December 2012 (JFI Feb.16’15). All three major refining centers are showing robust margins for incremental oil, an incentive to run as much crude as maintenance allows. In line with the west-to-east maintenance pattern, margins in the US are well over $8 per barrel, in Rotterdam over $6 and in Singapore remain over $4. Crack spreads for jet fuel mirror that regional trend, averaging $18.19/bbl on the US Gulf Coast, $14.31 in Northwest Europe and $13.92 in Singapore at mid-March. OECD product inventories are some 30 million bbl lower than the fiveyear average, with diesel stocks in particular below seasonal norms. While overall oil stocks show a surplus, that is because of bulging crude stocks, especially in the US. Over the winter, weather-aided global oil demand was relatively robust in December and January, preventing product stocks from rebuilding despite better margins, which helped stretch the stellar refinery margins into March. Relatively high main