Annual precipitation variability inferred from tree-ring width chronologies in the Changling-Shoulu region, China, during AD 1853-2007

摘要

On the basis of a significant correlation between the tree-ring width series from Changling-Shoulu (CLSL) in north-central China and observed instrumental data, the annual total precipitation of the previous July to the current June was reconstructed since 1853 for the studied region, with the predictor variables accounting for 41.2% of the variance in the precipitation data. Distinct wet periods with precipitation levels greater than the mean (315 mm) occurred in 1864-1876 and 1934-1960. Notable dry periods with precipitation less than the mean occurred in 1877-1888 and 1923-1933. The precipitation fluctuated dramatically during 1940-1970, and became relatively stable around the mean value from 1960. The CLSL precipitation series showed significant correlations with precipitation reconstructions from Mt. Xinglong, Mt. Helan, Ningwu and eastern China, suggesting that these five rainfall curves represent the general precipitation variations in the western-central environmentally sensitive zone of northern China. The calculations of the CRU grid points also indicate the existence of significant spatial correlation among these sites. Periodicity analysis showed clear 23.33-, 8.24-, 2.64- and 2.59-year cycles at a 99% confidence level for the reconstructed series during the past 155 years