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How does bias correction of regional climate model precipitation affect modelled runoff?

机译:区域气候模型降水的偏差校正如何影响模拟径流?

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摘要

Many studies bias correct daily precipitation from climate models to match the observed precipitation statistics, and the bias corrected data are then used for various modelling applications. This paper presents a review of recent methods used to bias correct precipitation from regional climate models (RCMs). The paper then assesses four bias correction methods applied to the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model simulated precipitation, and the follow-on impact on modelled runoff for eight catchments in southeast Australia. Overall, the best results are produced by either quantile mapping or a newly proposed two-state gamma distribution mapping method. However, the differences between the methods are small in the modelling experiments here (and as reported in the literature), mainly due to the substantial corrections required and inconsistent errors over time (non-stationarity). The errors in bias corrected precipitation are typically amplified in modelled runoff. The tested methods cannot overcome limitations of the RCM in simulating precipitation sequence, which affects runoff generation. Results further show that whereas bias correction does not seem to alter change signals in precipitation means, it can introduce additional uncertainty to change signals in high precipitation amounts and, consequently, in runoff. Future climate change impact studies need to take this into account when deciding whether to use raw or bias corrected RCM results. Nevertheless, RCMs will continue to improve and will become increasingly useful for hydrological applications as the bias in RCM simulations reduces.
机译:许多研究将气候模型中的每日平均降水量与实际观测到的降水量统计数据相吻合,然后将经过校正的数据用于各种建模应用。本文介绍了用于偏向区域气候模型(RCM)的正确降水的最新方法。然后,本文评估了应用于天气研究和预报(WRF)模型模拟​​降水的四种偏差校正方法,以及对澳大利亚东南部八个流域的模型径流的后续影响。总体而言,最好的结果是通过分位数映射或新提出的两态伽马分布映射方法产生的。但是,这两种方法之间的差异在此处的建模实验中(以及文献中所报道的)很小,这主要是由于所需的大量校正和随时间变化的不一致误差(非平稳性)。偏差校正降水的误差通常会在模拟径流中放大。经过测试的方法无法克服RCM在模拟降水序列方面的局限性,这会影响径流的产生。结果进一步表明,尽管偏差校正似乎并没有改变降水手段中的变化信号,但它可能会引入额外的不确定性,以改变高降水量中的信号,从而导致径流变化。未来的气候变化影响研究在决定使用原始的还是偏倚的RCM结果时需要考虑到这一点。然而,随着RCM模拟中的偏差减小,RCM将继续改进并在水文应用中变得越来越有用。

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