Libyan turmoil forces oil firms to make contingency plans

摘要

The growing political revolt against Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi has injected confusion into the oil sector, prodding many oil and chemical majors (Italian Eni, UK BP, Anglo-Dutch Royal Dutch Shell, Austrian OMV, Spanish Repsol YPF, and German BASF) to trim operations and evacuate staff. As of Feb. 23, the country's oil production has been cut by around 400K b/d, and on Feb. 24 Libyan jet fuel exports were suspended due to port closures and unfavorable weather. Some firms, such as South Korean companies and US Marathon Oil and Occidental Petroleum, reported that their operations were normal, but executives privately confirmed that plans are in the works to pull out employees and shut down production. However, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations vowed to replace any lost Libyan oil production with OPEC's 5MM b/d of spare capacity, as soon as companies are in need of it. The Feb. 24 announcement calmed Brent crude futures prices, which had surged on Feb. 23 to nearly $120/bbl—the highest price since Aug. 2008. On Feb. 25, the IEA noted that Saudi Arabia was already making additional crude cargoes available to refiners in Austria, Italy, France, Greece, Spain, and Switzerland, to make up for the Libyan shortfall. However, analysts noted that crude quality could be a concern for refiners if the disruption in Libyan supplies continues, as Saudi grades are not a direct substitute for Libyan crude.