PIM (Poppy Integrated Management): a bio-economic decision support model for the management of Papaver rhoeas in rain-fed cropping systems

摘要

T orra J, C irujeda A, R ecasens J, T aberner A & P owles SB (2010). PIM (Poppy Integrated Management): a bio-economic decision support model for the management of Papaver rhoeas in rain-fed cropping systems. Weed Research50, 127-139. A bio-economic model for Papaver rhoeas designed for dry-land cropping systems in Spain was developed. The model included four seed bank layers to simulate seed movement in the soil profile resulting from tillage, with different emergence rates and seed bank mortalities depending on soil cultivation and burial depth. Users of Poppy Integrated Management (PIM) might specify the crop sequence and any feasible combination of 38 different weed management practices (herbicide and non-herbicide options) each year over 10 or 20 years. Weed treatment options included selective herbicides (14), non-selective herbicides (1), non-herbicide treatments (11) and user-defined treatments (1). PIM represented weed and seed bank population dynamics, weed-crop competition, weed treatment impacts, agronomic practices and financial details. The bio-economic model could be used to evaluate weed management scenarios by investigating the implications of different tillage, fallow and cereal rotational sequences and of constraints on herbicide availability. Model validation combined available data from literature with our own data, to show that PIM was sufficiently accurate for predicting P. rhoeas population dynamics. Sensitivity analyses indicated that economics associated with fuel, fertiliser and seed costs, as well as grain yield and price, were primary drivers of management decisions, whereas seedling emergence and initial seed bank size were of secondary importance.