Forecasting Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin Using the NCEP Operational HWRF: Real-Time Implementation in 2012

摘要

This study documents the recent efforts of the hurricane modeling team at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) in implementing the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) for real-time tropical cyclone (TC) forecast guidance in the western North Pacific basin (WPAC) from May to December 2012 in support of the operational forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Evaluation of model performance for the WPAC in 2012 reveals that the model has promising skill with the 3-, 4-, and 5-day track errors being 125, 220, and 290 nautical miles (n mi; 1 n mi = 1.852 km), respectively. Intensity forecasts also show good performance, with the most significant intensity error reduction achieved during the first 24 h. Stratification of the track and intensity forecast errors based on storm initial intensity reveals that HWRF tends to underestimate storm intensity for weak storms and overestimate storm intensity for strong storms. Further analysis of the horizontal distribution of track and intensity forecast errors over the WPAC suggests that HWRF possesses a systematic negative intensity bias, slower movement, and a rightward bias in the lower latitudes. At higher latitudes near the East China Sea, HWRF shows a positive intensity bias and faster storm movement. This appears to be related to underestimation of the dominant large-scale system associated with the western Pacific subtropical high, which renders weaker steering flows in this basin.