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Consensus Consumer and Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs

机译:具有异类信念的共识消费者和跨期资产定价

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摘要

The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of heterogeneous beliefs in an otherwise standard competitive complete market economy. The construction of a consensus probability belief, as well as a consensus consumer, is shown to be valid modulo an aggregation bias, which takes the form of a discount factor. In classical cases, the consensus probability belief is a risk tolerance weighted average of the individual beliefs, and the discount factor is proportional to beliefs dispersion. This discount factor makes the heterogeneous beliefs setting fundamentally different from the homogeneous beliefs setting, and it is consistent with the interpretation of beliefs heterogeneity as a source of risk.We then use our construction to rewrite in a simple way the equilibrium characteristics (market price of risk, risk premium, risk-free rate) in a heterogeneous beliefs framework and to analyse the impact of beliefs heterogeneity. Finally, we show that it is possible to construct specific parametrizations of the heterogeneous beliefs model that lead to globally higher risk premia and lower risk-free rates.
机译:本文的目的是分析异质信念在原本标准的竞争性完全市场经济中的影响。共识概率信念的构建以及共识消费者被证明是有效的,以聚合偏差为模,采用偏差因子的形式。在经典情况下,共识概率信念是单个信念的风险承受力加权平均值,而折现因子与信念离散成正比。该折现因子使异质信念设置与同质信念设置从根本上有所不同,这与将异质性作为风险源的解释相一致。然后,我们使用我们的构造以简单的方式重写均衡特征(市场价格为风险,风险溢价,无风险利率),并分析了异质性信念的影响。最后,我们表明,有可能构建异构信念模型的特定参数化,从而导致全球范围内较高的风险溢价和较低的无风险率。

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