City traffic flow prediction based on improved GM(1,1) model

摘要

This paper studies the short-term traffic flow prediction method which is based on an improved GM(1,1) model. Considering the defect of the grey action, we change the grey action b into a dynamic variable b_1sinpk+b _2which contains the time term because of the traffic flow undulating. Thus, we construct a simple trigonometric grey GM(1,1|sin) model, give out its time response equation, analysis the scope of the p value based on the Taylor expansion of the time response equation. By contrasting to the GM(1,1) model, we conclude that the GM(1,1|sin) forecasting model has higher prediction accuracy then the traditional GM (1,1) model for undulating data.