Insurance and Economic Development - Application of Grey Model

摘要

The gry model is introduced to the readers in the insurance field. It is further employed to analyze the development of insurance market in six representative countries: China, U.S.A., Switzerland, Japan, Korea and India. By comparing the results of grey model analysis against that of regression models for the relationship between insurance density and GDP per capita, it is obvious that the grey model compensates for the weakness of the statistical methods. It also indicates that the grey model is applicable in forecasting the perspective future under a changeable economic circumstance of insurance markets. However, the monotony trend of the time series data is shown to be critical for the success or failure in applying GM analysis in forecasting the future market of insurance market. The advantage and weakness of regression analysis and GM approach are further discussed by this comparative study.