Affective Forecasting in Schizophrenia: Comparing Predictions to Real-Time Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) Ratings

摘要

Objective: "Affective forecasting" refers to the predictions people make about future affective experiences. These predictions influence decision making, which in turn might impact individuals' level of functioning, goal-directed behavior, and pursuit of potentially rewarding activities. In the current study, we explored affective forecasting in people diagnosed with schizophrenia. Method: Twenty-four participants with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder were asked to provide affective forecasts for an upcoming week. They were subsequently given a handheld mobile device that prompted them to complete "in-the-moment" positive affect (i.e., feeling active, excited, interested) and negative affect (i.e., jittery, scared, hostile, upset, guilty) ratings 6 times daily, over the next 7 days. Paired-sample t tests were used to compare forecasts to average weekly momentary ratings. Results: Participants expected more emotionally charged weeks than they actually experienced-both positive affect forecasts and negative affect forecasts were more intense than the average weekly ratings. Conclusions and Implications for Practice: The findings of the study have implications for psychiatric rehabilitation; outlining the differences between consumer forecasts (e.g., excessively pessimistic predictions, unrealistic expectations) and actual experience can serve as a component of psychosocial interventions, including motivational interviewing, goal setting, thought challenging, and vocational rehabilitation. Mobile technologies can be incorporated for short-term data collection in the context of these rehabilitation efforts.