USING SIMULATION TO FORECAST THE DEMAND FOR HOSPITAL EMERGENCY SERVICES AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL

摘要

We present a general simulation framework designed to model the Polish regional emergency hospital services system. Based partly on the last year's demand and structure, the National Health Fund grants contracts for admission units and emergency wards (AU/EW) to cover the next year's costs of treatment of acute patients. The hybrid simulation model examines the impact of forecasted regional demographic fluctuations on the expected type, volume, and cost of medical procedures for patients in emergency departments. Two simulation models are developed. A Monte Carlo model examines the influence of the observed demographic trends on the volume of emergency demand directed toward AU/EW in the region. The discrete-event model simulates patients' pathways and received services. The model's output may help healthcare decision makers to estimate future needs for emergency hospital care that must be satisfied at the regional level.