A condition- and age-based replacement model using delay time modelling

摘要

To make realistic maintenance decisions, it is important that maintenance managers make their preventive replacement decisions based on observations of the condition of their equipment. This study addresses a condition- and age-based replacement decision problem using the complete history of measured condition observations to minimize long-run average cost, maximize long-run average availability, or both. A stochastic filtering process (SFP) is used to estimate the residual lifetime distribution conditional on the history of observed condition information. A long-run average cost model and a long-run average availability model are analysed in order to determine the theorems necessary for calculating the optimum replacement time. To minimize the cost and maximize availability, a multiobjective decision frontier is proposed that will help maintenance managers deal with trade-offs between the two objectives. Finally, numerical examples are presented for each scenario to show the effectiveness of the methods proposed.