Economic evaluation of Johne's disease control programs implemented on six Michigan dairy farms.

摘要

Johne's disease (JD) is an incurable, chronic infectious disease prevalent in dairy herds throughout the US and the world. The substantial economic losses caused by JD have been well documented. However, information on the costs of controlling the disease is limited, yet necessary, if producers are to make sound decisions regarding JD management. The purpose of this paper is to describe a method for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of management changes to control JD on infected dairy farms. A 5-year longitudinal study of six dairy herds infected with JD was performed. Each herd implemented a JD control program upon study enrollment. Prevalence of JD within each herd was monitored with annual testing of all adult cows using fecal culture and/or serum ELISA. Individual cow production and culling information was collected to estimate the annual economic losses caused by JD. An economic questionnaire was developed and administered to each herd annually to estimate costs directly attributable to the JD control program. Based on the costs of the control program, and using the losses to estimate the potential benefits of the control program, the net present value (NPV) of the control program was calculated for each herd during the study and projected into the future for a total of 20 years. The NPV was calculated for four different scenarios: (1) assuming a linear decline in losses beyond the observed period of the study with JD eradication by year 20 of the control program; (2) assuming losses and JD prevalence remain constant at the rate equal to that of the last observed year while continuing the control program; (3) assuming linear increase in losses at rate equal to that in scenario 1 with no control program; and (4) assuming losses remain constant at same level as the beginning of the study with no control plan implemented. The NPV varied greatly across the herds. For scenario 1, only three herds had a positive NPV; and only two herds had a positive NPV under scenario two. In the absence of a control program, the NPV's were always negative. The costs of the JD control programs implemented on these herds averaged $30/cow/year with a median of $24/cow/year. The annual losses due to JD averaged $79/cow/year with a median of $66/cow/year. Investing in a JD control program can be cost-effective.