Fertility, education, and development: evidence from India

摘要

India is in the midst of a demographic transition that exhibits striking spatial differences. With few exceptions, fertility and mortality have been declining, but from greatly varying levels and at different speeds from state to state. Aside from the intrinsic importance of understanding these patterns of decline, the diversity of the Indian experience provides an opportunity to reexamine various interpretations of the fertility transition. India, it may be recalled, was one of the first countriesin the world to introduce a national family planning program, in the 1950s. In the early days, "population control" (as it was then called) appeared to assume some urgency, with authoritative critics such as Paul Ehrlich (1968) warning of the impending"population bomb" and of the specter of famine hovering over India itself. Then came a more gentle approach, stressing that "development is the best contraceptive." Initially this was taken to mean that economic growth would automatically reduce povertyand slow the growth of population. The notion of development itself evolved as awareness grew that economic growth per se did not mean a rapid improvement in the quality of life. Over time, the focus shifted from economic growth to social development, with the latter calling for economic growth to be supplemented by direct action in fields such as public health, elementary education, and social security. The emphasis on social development gained acceptance as a growing body of empirical research substantiated the view that public action in these fields had much to contribute both to better living conditions and to reducing population growth.