The Next 50 Years: Fatal Discontinuities

摘要

Modern civilization is subject to gradual environmental, social, economic, and political transformations as well as to sudden changes that can fundamentally alter its prospects. This article examines a key set of such fatal discontinuities by quantifying the likelihood of three classes of sudden, and potentially catastrophic, events--natural disasters (the Earth's collision with nearby asteroids, massive volcanic eruptions and mega-tsunami generated by these events, as well as by huge landslides); viral pandemics; and transformational wars--and by comparing their likelihood with other involuntary risks (including terrorism) and voluntary actions and exposures.