The Ex-ante and Ex-post Economic and Social Impacts of the Introduction of High-speed Trains in South East England

摘要

This paper reports on research to determine the impact of the high-speed train (HST) network made possible by the Channel Tunnel on socio-economic development in South East England. A detailed literature review has been carried out assessing the impacts of HST, which includes reviewing computable general equilibrium models, accessibility and ex-post monitoring studies. Data on economic activity rates, population changes, planning consents and land values are collated and related to changes in accessibility. Detailed case studies are provided for one location with long established HST services for which ex-post analysis is possible (Ashford), and for locations where HST services are being planned, or have recently been opened, and ex-ante analysis can be undertaken (e.g. Stratford and St Pancras, respectively). The case studies show that the wider economic benefits of HST are difficult to detect, as they are swamped by external factors, but they are more likely when large changes in accessibility are complemented by supportive planning policies.