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El Ni?o-southern oscillations and lathyrism epidemics

机译:厄尔尼诺现象-南方振荡和俗俗的流行

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Epidemics of lathyrism, a neurological syndrome of spastic paraparesis, have occurred during severe droughts in Europe, Asia, and Africa for millenia. Causation is linked to exposure to β-N-oxalyl-L-α,β-diaminopropionic acid (β-L-ODAP), a neurotoxin in Lathyrus sativus. Lathyrism shares neurological features with konzo, a syndrome of predominantly spastic paraparesis which occurs during droughts in East and Central Africa and is linked to El Nino activity. This study was done to determine the relationship of lathyrism epidemics to phases of El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and to propose a model to explain why the geospatial distributions of lathyrism and konzo are non-overlapping. Contingency table of phases of ENSO and occurrence of lathyrism epidemics in Central Provinces, India from 1833–1902 was created and odds ratio was calculated. Wavelet spectra of time series of annual occurrence of lathyrism in Rewah district, India, and its coherence with ENSO and PDO from 1894–1920 were performed. Lathyrism epidemic was associated with El Nino phase of ENSO, odds ratio 378 (95 % 32–4475). Global spectra showed peaks at periodicity of 2.5 and 4.6 years for lathyrism; 2.7 and 5.0 years for PDO; and 2.5, 4.6, 7.0 years for ENSO. Spectrograms showed time-varying periodicities of 2.5–3.5 and 4.5–5.5 years for lathyrism; 2.0–3.0 and 6.5–9.0 years for ENSO; and 3.5 and 5.0 years for PDO, p < 0.0001. Spectral coherence were at 2.0–3.5 and 4.5–5.0 years for ENSO and lathyrism p < 0.0001, and 5.0 years for PDO and lathyrism p < 0.05. The droughts of El Ninos initiate dependence on Lathyrus sativus, which exposes the population to neurotoxic β-L-ODAP. Public health control of lathyrism epidemics should include development of models to forecast El Ninos and initiate food programmes in susceptible areas.
机译:在千禧年的欧洲,亚洲和非洲的严重干旱期间,已经出现了痉挛性轻瘫的神经系统综合症,即脊柱病的流行。原因与暴露于山La豆中的神经毒素-β-N-草酰-L-α,β-二氨基丙酸(β-L-ODAP)有关。 Lathyrism与konzo(一种主要为痉挛性轻瘫)综合症具有神经系统特征,这种综合症在东非和中非干旱期间发生,并与厄尔尼诺现象有关。进行这项研究是为了确定Lathrism流行与El Nino-southern振荡(ENSO)和太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的相位之间的关系,并提出一个模型来解释为什么Lathyrism和konzo的地理空间分布不重叠。绘制了1833年至1902年印度中部省份ENSO阶段性和Lathyrism流行的偶发性表,并计算了优势比。进行了印度Rewah地区每年发生的岩性的时间序列的小波谱及其与ENSO和PDO在1894-1920年之间的一致性。散thy病流行与ENSO的厄尔尼诺现象有关,比值比为378(95%32-4475)。全球光谱显示,在周期性的2.5年和4.6年内出现了山脊现象。 PDO为2.7和5.0年;以及ENSO的2.5、4.6、7.0年。频谱图显示,散理的时变周期为2.5-3.5年和4.5-5.5年。 ENSO为2.0–3.0和6.5–9.0年; PDO为3.5和5.0年,p <0.0001。 ENSO和石制的光谱相干性分别为2.0-3.5年和4.5-5.0年,p <0.0001,PDO和石制的光谱相干性为5.0年p <0.05。厄尔尼诺现象的干旱开始导致人们对山La豆的依赖,这使该人群遭受了神经毒性的β-L-ODAP。对散乱性流行病的公共卫生控制应包括开发模型以预测厄尔尼诺现象并在易感地区启动粮食计划。

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