Multinomial Logistic Regression Model for Predicting Tornado Intensity Based on Path Length and Width

摘要

Among many variables that determine the strength of a tornado, reported path length and width of a tornado are highly associated with its intensity. The relationship of the length and width of tornadoes to the intensity of their damage has been modeled using other methods, but we choose to use multinomial logistic models for different Fujita (F) scale measurements. Currently, very few systems have the ability to accurately predict the intensity of tornadoes. Being able to predict the intensity of a tornado would allow for more effective forecasting and increased weather safety in extreme storms. We derived a multinomial logistic expression to calculate the odds that a particular tornado has a certain intensity, F1 through F5.