Application of the Colorado River Simulation System Model to Evaluate Water Shortage Conditions in the Central Arizona Project

摘要

Central Arizona Project (CAP) is currently enhancing its water resources modeling capabilities to improve water resources management and planning activities and to better understand the inherent complexities of the Colorado River Basin system. CAP modeling activities in the Colorado River Basin extensively utilize the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS) model. CRSS is a sophisticated object-oriented surface water model developed under the RiverWare modeling environment and maintained by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR). CRSS incorporates important aspects of the Colorado River Basin: main stem, reservoirs along the river, water inflows to the river, and points of water deliveries. By using the object-oriented and rule-based capabilities of RiverWare, CRSS has embedded the rules of the Law of the River. These set of rules guide the operation and management of the Colorado River Basin's surface water supply. This analysis executes CRSS short term simulations to evaluate the vulnerability of water deliveries to CAP from the Colorado River under different extreme hydrological and policy conditions. In the future, this type of analysis will provide key input for other CAP models, aimed to improve a quantitative understanding of the impacts of different uncertain and complex scenarios: drought conditions, future user demand behavior, reservoir operation, and optimize water recovery as a part of Arizona Water Bank Authority (AWBA), among others.